In an era of hyper-competition, the world's most successful companies will be those that are always thinking three or four steps ahead, according to economist Todd Buchholz of GCS Business Capital.

Speaking to about 300 attendees at the opening session of the Industrial Asset Management Council in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, Buchholz said, "We live in an era of shock waves of change. Labor rates have been pushed down globally by hundreds of millions of workers entering the work force, making it very difficult for middle-class workers to get a raise."

Todd Buchholz

The triple whammy of what Buchholz calls the "scissors economy" occurred when the Federal Reserve Board hiked interest rates too much, OPEC tightened the noose on the world's oil supply, and the Euro fell too far.

"With oil now at $95 a barrel and the weak dollar, it's fantastic if you are an American exporter. American exports are on fire," he said. "Exports are growing faster than imports for the first time in 25 years. The good news is that I believe the worst of inflation is behind us, and the job market, while stagnant, is not collapsing."

In the new "light economy," companies that emphasize "brains over brawn" will win the day, the economist noted. "The race for I.Q. points is intense, as timber jobs declined by 32 percent from 1992 to 2002, while financial services jobs increased by 78 percent."

At the same time, he added, container shipping costs have tripled to $5,500 since 2000. "In 1950, it took 100 men one week to unload a cargo ship. Today, seven men can unload a ship in one day."

Buchholz predicted economic growth of 1 to 1.5 percent for the U.S. for the next nine months, but he sees a silver lining in cash-flush companies. "Corporate cash on hand is greater today than in any prior recession, especially among the Fortune 500," he said. "Baby boomers may dump their stocks over the next five years, but if we keep dividend taxes low they will be encouraged to keep their money in the stock market."

Buchholz also told manufacturing company executives not to worry too much about China. "China is aging much faster than we are," he said. "Their one-child policy will come back to bite them in about 15 years, when they suddenly need a growing work force and it's not there."

The Gulf Coast States of the Middle East, however, will be a force to be reckoned with for a long time, he noted. The number of Middle East chemical plants has quadrupled since 1990, and the GCC now account for $35 billion in annual trade with Asia. Plus, new free trade agreements between the GCC and China, India and New Zealand will help spike that growth for a while.

Ron Starner, executive director of IAMC

The top jobs of the future, he noted, will come from these sectors: electrical engineering, medical science, architecture, legal work and financial services.

Conversely, he said, expect continued job losses in timber, farming, sewing, typesetting and stevedores.

Two of the biggest work force needs for the U.S. economy right now, Buchholz said, are for petroleum engineers (down 90 percent since 1981) and agricultural scientists.

Putting the hyper-competition into perspective, the economist and author of several books said that China now has more wireless phones than the U.S. and Japan combined. Furthermore, he noted, China will add 258 million people by 2025 while the U.S will add only 58 million.