Mark Vitner Source: www.pbs.org

Whether you are a corporate real estate professional, economic developer or commercial real estate service provider, however, you might want to stop and take note of this emerging trend: A manufacturing recovery is on the way.

Interestingly, this rebound was prognosticated by Wells Fargo economist Mark Vitner at the IAMC Professional Forum in North Carolina in May. He deftly predicted that the U.S. economy would bottom out around October of this year and then gradually gain steam.

His forecast is ringing true. In case you missed it, the National Association of Manufacturers released a Labor Day report confirming signs of improving conditions in the manufacturing sector over the past few months.

To say that this report is a "must-read" for our industry would be an understatement. In short, it is a gold mine of data and analysis. Among the highlights of "The Turning Tide: Prospects for a Manufacturing Recovery" are as follows:

• NAM chief economist David Huether predicts that 43 percent of the manufacturing jobs lost during the recession may be regained, resulting in the return of 913,000 manufacturing jobs by 2014.
• During the three months ending in July, orders for non-defense capital goods surged at an annual rate of 35 percent - the highest growth rate since January 2005.
• U.S. GDP will increase at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent in the second half of 2009 before stabilizing at 1.5 percent in the first half of 2010.
• The U.S. economy will gradually build momentum through 2010 and then shift into full-recovery mode in 2011 and 2012, when GDP growth is expected to approach 5 percent.

Huether forecasts that more than two-thirds (635,000, or 70 percent) of the manufacturing jobs that will be created from 2010 to 2014 will be concentrated in five primary industries: machinery; fabricated metals; aerospace and other transportation; food and beverage products; and chemicals.

Moderate employment gains, he notes, will be seen in primary metals, miscellaneous manufacturing (including medical equipment), wood products, printing, plastics, non-metallic minerals, paper products and electrical equipment.

Just to make sure that NAM's predictions were on track, I consulted several experts to see if they had a contrarian view. They did not.

When asked if he agreed with NAM's assessment, Vitner said: "Yes, but the recovery will be slower for producers of consumer products. Demand for industrial equipment is poised for stronger growth. Corporate balance sheets are in pretty strong shape and there is relatively little overhang from the last cycle."

Noted economist Dr. Loren C. Scott, another past IAMC speaker, said: "Given the very significant fall in that sector [manufacturing], I think there is no doubt it will be bigger next year than it is now. My guess is that durable goods - cars, furniture, electronics, appliances - will come back first as people's income recovers, because those are the sectors that got hit the hardest. I look for the chemical sector to enjoy a rebound too as the housing and car markets start to come back."

Loren Scott

George Livingston, chairman of NAI Realvest in Maitland, Fla., is less optimistic but still admits that a manufacturing recovery is on the way. "I do think so," he says when asked whether factory work is about to rebound, "but it will only have a modest impact, and growth in this sector will be slow."

What does all this mean for IAMC and its members? First and foremost, it means that access to rapidly changing information on the state of manufacturing in the economy - and detailed analysis on what that means for corporate real estate - has never been more important.

If you want to make sense of these fundamental shifts, you won't find any better experts than those speaking at the IAMC Professional Forum in Minneapolis from Sept. 19 to 23. From Joel Kotkin to Thom Winninger to Glenn Mercer and many others, you will find the type of insightful analysis that is not just helpful in these swiftly changing times, but indispensable.

If you doubt that, just ask anyone who attended the Spring 2009 Forum in Asheville. From Vitner's right-on-target economic forecast to BB&T Chairman John Allison's detailed explanation of the banking crisis, the content was rated by IAMC attendees as the best ever delivered at an IAMC Forum.

Secondly, the coming recovery in manufacturing means that there has never been a more opportune time to brush up on your skill sets - from how to use social media to your advantage to how to give a more effective public presentation. Noted trainer Patricia Fripp is back, by popular demand, in Minneapolis to offer timely instruction on how to make your presentations deliver a positive impact.

And if you thought that Twitter and Facebook are only for high-schoolers and college students, think again. They are tools that every business executive can use to his or her advantage, and IAMC Forum attendees will learn how to use these tools to maximize the value of IAMC membership.

For economic developers, the potential impact of the NAM report is even more profound. If the U.S. is on the verge of creating almost a million new manufacturing jobs, then the competition to acquire those highly valued jobs has already begun.

So whatever your chosen profession, the time for a crash-course education in manufacturing and its impact on the economy is now.

After all, you didn't miss the recession; you certainly don't want to miss out on the recovery.